Monday, August 07, 2006

Ukraine Analysis

As the text of the political agreemenr in Kiev becomes available, its implicationbs can be analyzed better than in the first reactions.

But essentially the first generally positive assessments are confirmed by a more detailed reading of the text.

Early out is Anders ├ůslund with a commentary published today in The Moscow Times.

On the foreign policy side, he sees the document as mostly a victory for the reformers in Our Ukraine.

"Ukraine is to maintain its course toward European integration with the eventual aim of joining the European Union, including the beginning negotiations on a free trade zone between Ukraine and the EU. Again, this looks like a victory for Our Ukraine."

"The Party of the Regions insisted on adding a paragraph on the Common Economic Space, a proposed common market between Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine that has been pushed by Moscow. But the coalition addresses the Common Economic Space only as a free trade area and with certain reservations from Yushchenko that may make the deal much less attractive for the Russian side."

Good. But absolute key will be what happens with the economy.

On these issues as well, the words in the documents are reassuring.

But it's the deeds that will make the difference.