Elections Tomorrow

Tomorrow is election day in Sweden, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

And in addition there is some sort of referendum in Trans-Dniester. Not much of an election, but still worth noting.

The Swedísh election is increasingly likely to result in Prime Minister Persson being replaced by Prime Minister Reinfeldt leading a four-party centre-right coalition.

All opinion polls this morning gives a lead to the centre-right.

That might be less important than the fact that the momentum we have seen during the last few days have been moving in that direction. That it will change before the polling stations close at 8 p.m. tomorrow is unlikely.

Today is the last day of campaign - in the wonderful late summer sun of September. Most party leaders will try to be both in Stockholm and in some other part of Sweden - with the 2nd largest city Göteborg the obviously most popular destination.

The final TV debate yesterday evening went well for the centre-right Alliance, with Prime Minister Persson failing to make the break-through that he so desperately needed. But he reluctantly had to accept that he is dependent for his future on the Communists - yes, the leader of the leftist party calls himself communist - and the Greens.

And this only added to the uncertainty concerning his policies for the future.

But there is also so called Senate elections in Berlin tomorrow. And they seem less likely to result in a change.

Berlin is run by an odd red-red coalition between the Social Democrats SPD and the ex-Communist of PDS. And this is now challenged by the CDU and its main candidate Friedbert Pflueger.

But he's up against a rather solid majority supported also by all the old ex-Communist buraucrats still living in the Eastern parts of the now reunified Berlin.

His aim is probably to make a decent election, showing that the CDU is a force to be reckoned with, establishing himself as a Berliner and then aim for the next elections. Politics is a long-term business.

There is also elections in the Land of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in northern Germany, which is the only other place in Germany run by red-red coalitions.

Here the prospects are for more of change, with an increase in the support of the CDU, and perhaps a great coalition as a result.

Together, these two elections will give some indications of how the political winds are blowing in the country.

The thing in Trans-Dniester - the break-away Russian statelet in Moldova - isn't really much to comment on. The result is easily orchestrated by the authorities.

The only relevant question is how the Kremlin will decide to play it. But that has almost nothing with democratic elections to do.